The Pattern That’s Held for 50+ Years
For starters, mortgage rates don't move on their own. They tend to follow the 10-year treasury yield, a number tied to how investors feel about the economy.
It’s not an exact science, since plenty of other factors can move it day to day, but broadly speaking, when the economy looks strong, that yield tends to climb over time. When the outlook gets shaky, it tends to ease. For over 50 years, the 10-year treasury yield and mortgage rates have moved almost in lockstep (see graph below):
The gap between them is called the “spread.” On average, that gap runs about 1.76 percentage points. And that spread impacts your mortgage rate. A wider spread tends to push mortgage rates higher than the treasury yield alone would suggest, while a narrower spread keeps rates closer to the treasury yield.
One of the Big Reasons Rates Likely Won’t Drop Dramatically Anytime Soon
If you’re hoping mortgage rates will drop a lot, here’s the reality – they probably won’t, at least not anytime soon. One of the big reasons why comes down to that spread between the 10-year treasury yield and mortgage rates.
A few years ago, that gap got a lot wider as uncertainty in the economy pushed it as high as 3.19 points in 2023.
Now here's the part worth noting – that gap has been narrowing lately. It’s down to about 2.01, just above the long-term average of 1.76 (see graph below):
When the gap is wide, there’s more room for rates to fall. But when it’s relatively normal, like it is now, there’s less wiggle room for rates to fall.
Why Mortgage Rates Aren’t Higher Right Now
Today’s mortgage rate is basically the treasury yield plus the spread. So, when either one moves, your rate moves with it. Here are 3 different rates, all built off today's 10-year treasury yield of 4.68% to show you just how much the spread matters for your bottom line (see graph below):
If the spread were still stretched out like it was in 2023, rates would be pushing close to 8% right now. That’s because the spread was over a full point wider than it is today.
But now, thanks to the spread narrowing recently, today's rate sits around 6.69%. That’s the middle scenario in that visual. That's a big difference in your monthly payment compared what we could see if the spread was as big as it was 2023. As Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire, put it:
“Of course, mortgage spreads being better in 2026 is the housing hero story of the year . . .”
Now compare that middle bar to the 3rd one. If the spread were sitting at its exact long-term average, rates would be around 6.5%. That's only about a quarter of a point away from where rates actually are today. That means most of the improvement in mortgage rates we should realistically expect from a shrinking spread has already happened.
In other words, the same narrowing spread that’s the reason rates aren’t close to 8% today is also a big reason why they’re not likely to fall a lot further.
Bottom Line
That’s the trade-off with a narrowing spread. Rates may not be where you want them, but they're better than they could've been. If you want help figuring out what that means for your monthly payment, reach out to a local lender
